HIGH IMPACT

How will the Iran war affect small businesses?

Quick answer: Small businesses face a triple hit: energy costs up 20-35%, supply chain delays of 2-3 weeks, and air freight costs spiking 400% in some cases. Nearly two-thirds of companies expect revenue losses. Restaurants, retailers, and import-dependent businesses are hardest hit.

Last updated: March 13, 2026

What costs are rising for small businesses?

The Iran war is hitting small businesses from multiple directions:

Cost categoryIncreaseSource
Diesel fuel+35%Energy market data
Air freightUp to 400%ISM supply chain report
Supply chain cost-to-serve+40% averagePost-disruption analysis
Heating oil/natural gas+19-25%EIA data
Shipping insuranceSignificant spikesWar risk premiums

(ISM)

Which businesses are hardest hit?

Restaurants and food service

  • Food ingredient costs rising (especially cooking oils, imported produce, meat)
  • Energy costs for cooking, refrigeration, and delivery up 20%+
  • Delivery services passing fuel surcharges to restaurants

Retail and e-commerce

  • Shipping delays of 2-3 weeks on imported goods
  • Container shipping rates spiking
  • Inventory shortages for popular items

Import-dependent businesses

  • Nearly two-thirds expect revenue losses during disruptions
  • Air freight costs spiked 400% within 48 hours of the conflict starting
  • Some manufacturers warning of inventory shortages

(Supply Chain Magazine)

What should small business owners do?

Immediate actions:

  • Diversify suppliers — don’t rely on a single source, especially from affected regions
  • Maintain 2-3 local/regional suppliers for key ingredients and materials
  • Pre-agree on substitutions with suppliers in case primary products become unavailable
  • Review contracts for force majeure clauses and price adjustment provisions

Financial protection:

  • Talk to your bank about bridge financing or credit line increases
  • Review insurance policies for supply chain disruption coverage
  • Consider SBA disaster loans if they become available
  • Adjust pricing carefully — customers understand costs are rising, but communicate transparently

(ARF Financial)

Is there government help for small businesses?

No specific Iran war relief programs have been announced yet, but existing resources include:

  • SBA loans and counseling — sba.gov
  • SCORE mentoring — free business advice from experienced mentors
  • State small business development centers — local assistance programs
  • Local chamber of commerce — advocacy and networking

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