HIGH IMPACT

Will the fertilizer shortage from the Iran war cause a food crisis?

Quick answer: It's a serious risk. The Strait of Hormuz closure is disrupting one-third of globally traded fertilizer right as spring planting begins. With no strategic fertilizer reserve, experts warn of grocery supply shortages within 3 weeks and higher food prices for months.

Last updated: March 13, 2026

What’s happening with fertilizer?

The Strait of Hormuz closure is disrupting roughly one-third of globally traded fertilizer at the worst possible time — the start of Northern Hemisphere spring planting season. Unlike oil, there is no strategic reserve for fertilizer. (EnviroLink)

The food industry faces a triple hit:

  1. Energy costs — powering farm machinery, processing, and refrigeration
  2. Fertilizer crisis — essential for crop yields, now scarce and expensive
  3. Shipping disruption — Cape of Good Hope rerouting adds ~$1 million per voyage and weeks of delay

(Food Ingredients First)

How soon will this affect grocery stores?

Experts warn the war could trigger grocery supply shortages within three weeks as current inventory runs out and new shipments are delayed or rerouted. (WFSB)

The timeline:

  • Now: Fresh produce and imported items seeing price increases
  • 2-3 weeks: Potential spot shortages of imported goods
  • 1-3 months: Broader price increases as fertilizer costs hit spring planting
  • 3-6 months: Harvest yields may be lower if farmers can’t access affordable fertilizer

Which countries will be hit hardest?

A CNBC analysis identifies the most vulnerable nations as those that:

  • Import a large share of their food
  • Depend on Gulf shipping routes
  • Have limited foreign currency reserves

Countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia are most at risk. But even wealthy nations will see higher food prices. (CNBC)

What about food security in the US?

The US is largely self-sufficient in staple grains, but relies on imports for:

  • Coffee, cocoa, tropical fruits — global shipping dependent
  • Off-season produce — imported from Southern Hemisphere
  • Specialty ingredients — spices, oils, and additives
  • Fertilizer inputs — US farmers need affordable fertilizer for spring planting

(IFPRI)

What’s being done?

  • The IEA’s emergency oil release aims to reduce energy costs for agriculture
  • Some countries are considering fertilizer export restrictions to protect domestic supply
  • The USDA is monitoring supply chains and may release strategic food reserves
  • Congress is being urged to act on food price stabilization measures

(Axios)

What can you do?

  • Buy local and seasonal produce when possible
  • Stock up on shelf-stable staples now
  • Consider starting a small garden for herbs and vegetables
  • Compare prices across multiple stores — price gaps are widening
fertilizerfood crisissupply chainagriculturefood security

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Related Questions

Will my groceries get more expensive because of the Iran war?

Likely yes. Rising oil prices increase transportation and packaging costs, which eventually hit food prices. Expect modest increases over the next 2-4 weeks.

Will there be food shortages because of the Iran war?

No food shortages expected in the US. Prices will rise due to higher transportation costs, but supply is stable. The US is largely self-sufficient in food production.

Which grocery items will get more expensive first because of the Iran war?

Fresh produce, imported coffee, tropical fruits, and cooking oils are rising first. Fruits and vegetables were already up 1.4% before the war started. Meat, dairy, and packaged goods will follow as shipping and energy costs ripple through.