HIGH IMPACT

Will medicine and prescription drug prices go up?

Quick answer: Yes, pharmaceutical raw material costs have already surged 20-30% in two weeks. India, which supplies about 40% of US generic drugs, is particularly exposed because many raw material shipments transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Last updated: 2026-03-12

What’s Happening to Drug Supply Chains

The pharmaceutical industry is heavily dependent on global shipping routes that pass through or near the conflict zone:

  • Pharma raw material costs surged 20-30% in just two weeks after the conflict began (India.com, March 12)
  • Air freight costs spiked 400% in the affected region, hitting pharmaceutical exports hard (LabNews)
  • Indian pharma exports could see $600 million in losses — India is the world’s largest supplier of generic drugs (The Week India, March 11)

Which Medicines Are Most at Risk

Highest risk for price increases or shortages:

  • Vitamins and nutritional supplements (many raw materials from Asia)
  • Antibiotics (significant manufacturing in India and China)
  • Generic prescription drugs (India supplies ~40% of US generics)
  • Over-the-counter pain relievers and fever reducers

Moderate risk:

  • Brand-name drugs with domestic manufacturing
  • Specialty medications with established stockpiles

Lower risk:

  • Locally manufactured drugs
  • Medications with diverse supply chains

Country-Specific Impact

Pakistan: Only about 2 months of medicine stock remaining, creating urgent supply concerns (Pakistan Today, March 9)

India: As a major manufacturer AND exporter, India faces both higher input costs and disrupted shipping routes for exports

United States: Dependent on Indian and Chinese generics. Prices for common prescriptions likely to rise

Europe: Similar exposure through Indian generic suppliers and Asian raw material sources

What You Can Do

  • Don’t panic-buy medications — hoarding can worsen shortages for everyone
  • Talk to your doctor about 90-day prescriptions if you take regular medications
  • Ask your pharmacist about alternative brands or generics that may be less affected
  • Check if your medications are domestically manufactured — these are less likely to be disrupted
  • Review your health insurance to understand your out-of-pocket maximum

Sources: India.com, The Week India, Pakistan Today, LabNews