HIGH IMPACT

How does the Iran war affect farmers and food prices?

Quick answer: Farmers face a crisis: fertilizer prices jumped 25%+ overnight, diesel costs are up 35%, and spring planting is weeks away. The Strait of Hormuz blocks 49% of global urea exports. Analysts warn corn acreage could shrink 1-1.5 million acres, driving food prices higher for everyone.

Last updated: March 13, 2026

What’s happening to farming costs?

The Iran war hit agriculture at the worst possible time — just weeks before spring planting:

Fertilizer crisis

  • Urea prices: Jumped from $516 to $683/metric ton at New Orleans import hub — a 25%+ increase in days
  • The Strait of Hormuz handles 49% of global urea exports and 30% of global ammonia exports
  • The route has been shut down since the war started, with no alternative
  • There is no strategic reserve for fertilizer

(AgWeb) (Carnegie Endowment)

Diesel costs

  • Diesel prices have spiked 35% since the war began
  • Diesel powers nearly every aspect of farming: field preparation, planting, fertilizer application, irrigation, harvesting, and transportation

(AgWeb)

How will farmers respond?

Farmers are being forced to make difficult decisions:

  • Iowa corn farmer Brad Feckers planned to plant two-thirds of his farm with corn but is now considering pulling back due to nitrogen fertilizer costs
  • Analysts warn higher input costs could shift 1-1.5 million acres from corn to soybeans (soybeans need less fertilizer)
  • The South Carolina Farm Bureau president warned that “farmers are not going to be able to finance planting their crop”

(Farm Policy News)

Farmers warned Congress directly

Farmers testified before the Senate Agriculture Committee about the Iran war’s price shocks, calling for emergency assistance and strategic fertilizer reserves. (Civil Eats)

The American Farm Bureau Federation released a Market Intel analysis highlighting spring planting concerns. (AFBF)

What does this mean for consumers?

The farm-level crisis will reach your grocery store in waves:

TimelineImpact
NowFresh produce prices rising (energy + transport costs)
1-2 monthsMeat and dairy prices increase (feed costs rising)
3-6 monthsGrain-based products rise (lower planting + higher inputs)
6-12 monthsIf fertilizer remains scarce, lower crop yields push all food prices higher

What’s being done?

  • USDA is monitoring supply chains and may release strategic grain reserves
  • Some farmers are exploring precision agriculture to use less fertilizer
  • Congress is considering emergency agriculture support packages
  • The IEA oil reserve release aims to reduce diesel costs (though slowly)
farmersagriculturefertilizerdieselplanting seasonfood prices

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Related Questions

Will the fertilizer shortage from the Iran war cause a food crisis?

It's a serious risk. The Strait of Hormuz closure is disrupting one-third of globally traded fertilizer right as spring planting begins. With no strategic fertilizer reserve, experts warn of grocery supply shortages within 3 weeks and higher food prices for months.

Will my groceries get more expensive because of the Iran war?

Likely yes. Rising oil prices increase transportation and packaging costs, which eventually hit food prices. Expect modest increases over the next 2-4 weeks.

Which grocery items will get more expensive first because of the Iran war?

Fresh produce, imported coffee, tropical fruits, and cooking oils are rising first. Fruits and vegetables were already up 1.4% before the war started. Meat, dairy, and packaged goods will follow as shipping and energy costs ripple through.