Spring 2026 homebuying outlook
The spring home shopping season was approaching with momentum, but the Iran war has injected uncertainty:
- 25% of consumers delaying or canceling major purchases
- 56% of consumers report no impact on their purchase timelines
- Mortgage rates hit 6.11%, largest weekly gain since April 2025
- Purchase applications still positive year over year every week in 2026
What real estate agents are seeing
- Areas with heavy military populations (San Antonio, San Diego) not yet seeing the conflict widely surface in buyer/seller discussions
- If the conflict is limited, the housing market could rebound quickly
- A prolonged conflict could stall home sales this spring
- First-time buyers are the most affected by higher rates
Impact scenarios
| Scenario | Rate outlook | Market impact |
|---|---|---|
| Quick resolution | Rates drop back to 5.5-5.8% | Strong spring rebound |
| Moderate conflict | Rates stay 6.0-6.5% | Sluggish but stable |
| Prolonged war | Rates push to 6.5-7.0% | Significant slowdown |
Agent strategies
- Educate buyers on rate lock options and timing
- Help sellers price realistically for the current rate environment
- Focus on motivated buyers who need to move regardless of geopolitics
- Monitor rate movements weekly to advise clients on timing
Sources: Scotsman Guide, Real Estate News, HousingWire