Why the Timing Is Terrible
Spring planting season across the Northern Hemisphere runs roughly March through May. Farmers need fertilizer now to prepare their fields. The Iran war started at the worst possible time for global food supply.
The Fertilizer Problem
More than one-third of globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed to commercial shipping since February 28. The numbers are staggering:
- 49% of the world’s urea (critical nitrogen fertilizer) comes from Gulf states
- 30% of global ammonia supply originates in the region
- 0 commercial fertilizer shipments have passed through the strait since the blockade began
What Happens If Farmers Cannot Get Fertilizer
Without adequate fertilizer, crops produce lower yields. The impact timeline:
March-April: Farmers may delay planting or plant fewer acres. Some will use existing stockpiles, but many did not stockpile ahead of an unexpected war.
May-July: Growing crops with insufficient fertilizer produce smaller harvests.
August-October: Harvest yields come in below normal, tightening food supply.
Late 2026 into 2027: Higher wholesale food prices flow through to grocery stores.
Which Foods Are Most at Risk
- Corn and wheat: Heavily fertilizer-dependent staple crops
- Meat and dairy: Feed costs rise when corn prices increase
- Processed foods: Many rely on corn syrup, wheat flour, and other affected inputs
- Fresh produce: Some vegetables and fruits require significant fertilizer application
What This Means for Consumers
Even if the war ends next week, the fertilizer disruption has already created a gap in the supply chain. The International Food Policy Research Institute warns that “higher energy and input costs risk reigniting global food inflation just as retail food prices had returned to more historical levels.”
Expect grocery bills to remain elevated through the rest of 2026 regardless of when the conflict ends.