Current Prices and Projections
Right now (March 12, 2026): National average is approximately $3.45-3.60/gallon, up from about $2.97 before the conflict began.
Scenarios
Scenario 1: Conflict Winds Down in 2-4 Weeks
- Oil drops back toward $85-90/barrel
- Gas prices: $3.20-3.50 nationally
- Timeline to normalize: 4-8 weeks after conflict resolution
Scenario 2: Strait of Hormuz Disrupted for Months
- Oil stays at $110-130/barrel
- Gas prices: $4.00-5.00 nationally, $6+ in California
- This is the most likely scenario based on current trajectory
Scenario 3: Full Strait of Hormuz Blockade + Wider Conflict
- Oil spikes to $150-200/barrel
- Gas prices: $5.50-7.00+ nationally
- This would be the worst energy crisis since the 1970s
Why It Varies by State
- California ($5+): Relies on imported gasoline, has highest state gas taxes, stricter fuel blend requirements
- Hawaii ($5+): 100% dependent on imported fuel
- Gulf Coast states ($3-3.50): Close to refineries, lower taxes
- Midwest ($3.30-3.80): Mixed, depends on pipeline access
Historical Comparison
For context, the all-time US average high was $5.02/gallon in June 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine war spike. If Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist, we could exceed that.
What Would Bring Prices Down
- Ceasefire or de-escalation allowing Strait of Hormuz shipping to resume
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases by the US and allies
- Increased production from non-OPEC sources
- Demand destruction (people driving less due to high prices)