What’s Happening Right Now
Since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, the average price of gasoline in the United States has jumped roughly 50 cents per gallon, from about $2.97 to $3.45. In California, prices have surged past $5 per gallon.
The main reason: roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. With active military operations in the area, tanker traffic has nearly ground to a halt.
What This Means for You
If you commute by car: Your monthly fuel bill could increase $40-80 depending on how far you drive. For a 30-mile round-trip commute in a car that gets 30 MPG, that’s about $1.50 more per day.
If you’re planning a road trip: Factor in significantly higher fuel costs. Gas could remain elevated for months even after active conflict ends, as supply chains take time to normalize.
If you have an EV: You’re largely shielded from direct gas price increases, though electricity costs may rise modestly.
How High Could It Go?
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have warned that Brent crude could reach $120-150 per barrel if Strait of Hormuz closures persist. That could translate to $5+ per gallon nationally and $7+ in California.
What You Can Do
- Fill up your tank sooner rather than later when you see lower prices
- Use apps like GasBuddy to find the cheapest stations near you
- Consider carpooling or public transit if available
- Combine errands to reduce total miles driven
- If you were considering a fuel-efficient or electric vehicle, the math is shifting further in that direction