What We Know About the Timeline
The conflict began on February 28, 2026 with US and Israeli strikes on Iran:
- President Trump has vowed to end the war soon (CBS News, March 11)
- However, Iran has continued to hit ships in the Strait of Hormuz and threatened banks
- Military analysts give a wide range of estimates for the active conflict phase
How Past Conflicts Affected Prices
Gulf War (1991): Oil prices spiked then fell quickly. The active air campaign lasted about 6 weeks. Oil prices returned to pre-war levels within 3-4 months of the ceasefire.
Iraq War (2003): Oil price impact lasted longer due to ongoing instability. Prices didn’t stabilize for about 6 months.
Russia-Ukraine War (2022): Energy prices took 6-12 months to normalize in Europe. Some markets still hadn’t fully recovered after a year.
When Will Prices Come Down?
Optimistic scenario (war ends within weeks):
- Gas/petrol prices: Could start declining within 2-4 weeks of a ceasefire
- Shipping: 1-2 months to normalize as rerouted ships return to normal lanes
- Stock market: Typically rebounds quickly when uncertainty is resolved
- Grocery prices: 2-4 months (takes time for lower transport costs to flow through)
Pessimistic scenario (conflict drags on for months):
- Gas/petrol prices: Could stay elevated for 6+ months
- Shipping: Prolonged disruption could cause lasting supply chain restructuring
- Inflation: Could reignite, delaying central bank rate cuts
- Recession risk: Increases significantly with a prolonged conflict
What You Can Do
- Don’t try to time the market. Whether investing or making purchases, waiting for the “perfect” moment is risky
- Budget conservatively. Plan for elevated prices for at least 2-3 months
- Build a small buffer in your savings for unexpected cost increases
- Stay informed but don’t panic. The situation is evolving daily
Sources: CBS News, historical analysis via Reuters, Al Jazeera, CNBC